Uncertainty estimation is crucial for ensuring the reliability of machine learning models in safety-critical applications. Evidential Deep Learning (EDL) offers a principled framework by modeling predictive uncertainty through Dirichlet distributions over class probabilities. However, existing EDL methods predominantly rely on level-0 hard labels, which supervise an uncertainty-aware model with full certainty. We argue that hard labels not only fail to capture epistemic uncertainty but also obscure the aleatoric uncertainty arising from inherent data noise and label ambiguity. As a result, EDL models often produce degenerate Dirichlet distributions that collapse to near-deterministic outputs. To overcome these limitations, we propose a vicinal risk minimization paradigm for EDL by incorporating level-1 supervision in the form of vicinally smoothed conditional label distributions.

In lar the this ge y paper rely BD. on Ho, we the we quantify v DP' er, s producing information-g the DP' these s information-g athe beha ring viors progress, athering is challenging which progress is in for visible by the estimatPP to the being observ the ations, prediction and uncertainty accordingly of propose privileged the observ frame ations work reconstructed of Uncertainty-Sensiti from partial ve Pri combines PP vile to choose ged re Learning w actions ard transformation (USPL).

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate advanced reasoning abilities, enabling robots to understand natural language instructions and generate high-level plans with appropriate grounding. However, LLM hallucinations present a significant challenge, often leading to overconfident yet potentially misaligned or unsafe plans. While researchers have explored uncertainty estimation to improve the reliability of LLM-based planning, existing studies have not sufficiently differentiated between epistemic and intrinsic uncertainty, limiting the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we present Combined Uncertainty estimation for Reliable Embodied planning (CURE), which decomposes the uncertainty into epistemic and intrinsic uncertainty, each estimated separately. Furthermore, epistemic uncertainty is subdivided into task clarity and task familiarity for more accurate evaluation. The overall uncertainty assessments are obtained using random network distillation and multi-layer perceptron regression heads driven by LLM features.

Estimating the uncertainty of responses from Large Language Models (LLMs) remains a critical challenge. While recent Bayesian methods have demonstrated effectiveness in quantifying uncertainty through low-rank weight updates, they typically require complex fine-tuning or post-training procedures. In this paper, we propose Training-Free Bayesianization (TFB), a simple yet theoretically grounded framework that efficiently transforms trained low-rank adapters into Bayesian ones without additional training. TFBsystematically searches for the maximally acceptable level of variance in the weight posterior, constrained within a family of low-rank isotropic Gaussian distributions. Our theoretical analysis shows that under mild conditions, this search process is equivalent to KL-regularized variational optimization, a generalized form of variational inference. Through comprehensive experiments, we show that TFB achieves superior uncertainty estimation and generalization compared to existing methods while eliminating the need for complex Bayesianization training procedures.

Safety validation, which assesses the safety of an autonomous system's motion planning decisions, is critical for the safe deployment of autonomous vehicles.

We introduce a novel framework for AI-generated image detection through epistemic uncertainty, aiming to address critical security concerns in the era of generative models. Our key insight stems from the observation that distributional discrepancies between training and testing data manifest distinctively in the epistemic uncertainty space of machine learning models. In this context, the distribution shift between natural and generated images leads to elevated epistemic uncertainty in models trained on natural images when evaluating generated ones. Hence, we exploit this phenomenon by using epistemic uncertainty as a proxy for detecting generated images. This converts the challenge of generated image detection into the problem of uncertainty estimation, underscoring the generalization performance of the model used for uncertainty estimation. Fortunately, advanced large-scale vision models pre-trained on extensive natural images have shown excellent generalization performance for various scenarios. Thus, we utilize these pre-trained models to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of images and flag those with high uncertainty as generated. Extensive experiments demonstrate the efficacy of our method.

Large language models (LLMs) demonstrate advanced reasoning abilities, enabling robots to understand natural language instructions and generate high-level plans with appropriate grounding. However, LLM hallucinations present a significant challenge, often leading to overconfident yet potentially misaligned or unsafe plans. While researchers have explored uncertainty estimation to improve the reliability of LLM-based planning, existing studies have not sufficiently differentiated between epistemic and intrinsic uncertainty, limiting the effectiveness of uncertainty estimation. In this paper, we present Combined Uncertainty estimation for Reliable Embodied planning (CURE), which decomposes the uncertainty into epistemic and intrinsic uncertainty, each estimated separately. Furthermore, epistemic uncertainty is subdivided into task clarity and task familiarity for more accurate evaluation. The overall uncertainty assessments are obtained using random network distillation and multi-layer perceptron regression heads driven by LLM features.

Traditional neural networks provide deterministic predictions without inherent uncertainty estimates. While Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) offer a principled approach to uncertainty quantification, their computational complexity limits scalability. Monte Carlo (MC) Dropout, initially introduced as a regularization technique, has been shown to approximate Bayesian inference by enabling probabilistic modeling through multiple stochastic forward passes. In this work, we enhance uncertainty estimation in deep learning by integrating a Dirichlet-based framework within MC Dropout. Specifically, we leverage the formulation proposed by Sensoy et al. (2018), where class probabilities are modeled using a Dirichlet distribution, allowing for a more informative uncertainty representation. The proposed approach maintains the computational efficiency of MC Dropout while improving the quality of uncertainty estimates. We discuss the theoretical foundations of our method and compare it with existing uncertainty quantification techniques. The results highlight the effectiveness of the proposed method in producing well-calibrated uncertainty estimates, offering a practical solution for uncertainty-aware deep learning models.

Uncertainty estimation plays an important role for future reliable deployment of deep segmentation models in safety-critical scenarios such as medical applications. However, existing methods for uncertainty estimation have been limited by the lack of explicit guidance for calibrating the prediction risk and model confidence. In this work, we propose a novel fine-grained reward maximization (FGRM) framework, to address uncertainty estimation by directly utilizing an uncertainty metric related reward function with a reinforcement learning based model tuning algorithm. This would benefit the model uncertainty estimation through direct optimization guidance for model calibration. Specifically, our method designs a new uncertainty estimation reward function using the calibration metric, which is maximized to fine-tune an evidential learning pre-trained segmentation model for calibrating prediction risk.